By Steve Adams | at
The Dodgers announced Tuesday that top pitching prospect River Ryan will undergo Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the remainder of the 2024 season and quite possibly all of the 2025 campaign while recovering. Ryan, who posted a 1.33 ERA through his first four big league starts, hit the injured list over the weekend after suffering a UCL sprain in his most recent start.
Ryan’s 2024 season was already known to be over, but the Tommy John procedure marks a worst-case scenario in the wake of his UCL injury. An internal brace procedure might’ve come with a shorter timeline for recovery, but he’ll require a full ligament replacement, which tends to shelve pitchers for upwards of 14 months. Every rehab process is different, and there’s always a chance Ryan might heal a bit faster than the standard pitcher, but a 12-month recovery is typically an absolute minimum for pitchers who require Tommy John surgery.
The 25-year-old Ryan was an 11th-round pick by the Padres in 2021. He went to the Dodgers in a trade that now looks like a heist, sending first baseman/outfielder Matt Beaty back to San Diego. (Beaty played in 20 games with the Padres and hit .093/.170/.163 before being cut loose.) Ryan hadn’t even made his professional debut at the time and had signed for a $100K bonus, so he was hardly a high-end prospect. Ryan simply getting to the majors would’ve been a player development success story for Los Angeles, but he instead ascended to the point where he’s regarded as one of the top pitching prospects in the sport. Ryan climbed as high as No. 21 overall on FanGraphs’ top-100 prospect rankings and sits 99th on MLB.com’s top-100 list at the moment.
The reasoning behind that rise isn’t especially difficult to see. Ryan spent the majority of the 2023 season in Double-A and pitched to a tidy 3.33 ERA in 97 1/3 frames before being bumped to Triple-A late in the year. He was hit hard in those two starts but returned to Triple-A this year and carved up opponents with a 2.76 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate in five starts. He was limited in the minors this season due to a shoulder injury, but Ryan graduated to the majors with a 3.22 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate in parts of three professional seasons since being traded to the Dodgers organization.
Ryan becomes the latest Dodgers hurler to land on the injured list in what’s been a trying season for their rotation depth. Los Angeles entered the year with Clayton Kershaw on the injured list and knowing that Tony Gonsolin would miss most/all of the season recovering from last summer’s Tommy John surgery. They’ve since seen Emmet Sheehan (Tommy John surgery) and Dustin May (esophageal surgery) fall to season-ending surgeries, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto (strained rotator cuff) and Walker Buehler (hip and elbow) land on the shelf with long-term injury troubles of their own. Prospects Nick Frasso (shoulder surgery) and Kyle Hurt (Tommy John surgery) are on the minor league injured list and done for the year as well. Last year’s breakout right-hander, Bobby Miller, has made just seven MLB starts and been ineffective both with the Dodgers and with Triple-A while navigating a shoulder injury of his own.
With that laundry list of injuries, the Dodgers currently have a rotation that includes Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone and deadline pickup Jack Flaherty. Buehler is expected to return from the injured list later this week, but he’s been bludgeoned for a 5.84 ERA in eight big league starts and has a 5.01 mark in another eight Triple-A starts this season — his first year back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. He offered a glimmer of hope in his most recent rehab start, tossing 5 1/3 innings and holding the Rangers’ Triple-A club to one run on one hit and three walks with five punchouts.
Because Ryan’s injury occurred while pitching at the big league level, he’s on the MLB injured list and will spend his 2025 rehab on the big league injured list as well. He’ll earn major league pay and service time while recovering from the injury. That’ll give him at least a full year of service while he recovers, putting him on track for arbitration in the 2027-28 offseason and free agency following the 2030 season. Of course, future optional assignments could change one or both of those trajectories, and for now the immediate focus will simply shift to the long process of getting the talented young righty back to full strength with an eye toward a late-2025 or early-2026 return.
